Operation 1027 and the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Strategic Offensive
Myanmar’s ongoing civil war has taken a dramatic turn with the surprise assault of Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance on the junta forces in northern Shan State. This offensive has resulted in the capture of military outposts, key towns, and strategic roads, marking a significant defeat for the Myanmar military junta. The implications of Operation 1027 are threefold: the military is increasingly overstretched, the alliance between the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the pro-democracy movement is growing stronger, and China’s support for the junta has proven to be a flawed strategy. This article explores these developments and their potential impact on Myanmar’s future.
The Junta Is Bleeding:
Since the coup in February 2021, the Myanmar military has faced resistance from ethnic armed organizations, the pro-democracy National Unity Government, and People’s Defense Forces. While the military has managed to hold onto cities and towns, it has suffered significant losses in rural areas. The military’s reliance on airpower and heavy artillery reveals its weakness at the tactical level. The recent Operation 1027, which resulted in the capture of strategic towns and roads, further exposes the military’s vulnerabilities. With the loss of these routes, the junta is cut off from a crucial border crossing to China, its main international backer. Combined with the economic downturn and international sanctions, the junta’s control over the country is increasingly tenuous.
The Junta’s Divide-and-Conquer Strategy Is Failing:
The junta has attempted to divide the resistance by targeting ethnic armed organizations aligned with the pro-democracy movement. However, the entrance of the Three Brotherhood Alliance into the conflict and their strategic coordination with other resistance forces signal a failure of the junta’s strategy. The alliance’s offensive in Shan State demonstrates greater cooperation among resistance forces and a determination to eliminate the military dictatorship. The ethnic armed organizations, historically seeking autonomy, now see an opportunity to secure their desired autonomy in the face of the junta’s weakness. The resistance coalition is stronger than ever, and the junta’s chances of coercing or buying off ethnic armed organizations are diminishing.
Deep Flaws in China’s Myanmar Policy:
China’s recent diplomatic support for the junta has proved to be misguided. While initially adopting a pragmatic stance, China has increasingly leaned towards the military regime, engaging in bilateral visits and ramping up Belt and Road Initiative projects. However, the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s offensive and their strategic cooperation with other resistance forces indicate a diminished sway of China over these groups. The alliance’s anti-crime stance and crackdown on criminal networks along the China-Myanmar border directly appeal to Beijing’s interests. China’s response to the fighting has been ambiguous, calling for a ceasefire but also expressing dissatisfaction with the escalation of the conflict. China’s future stance remains uncertain, but its influence over Myanmar’s actors will continue to be significant.
Finishing Off the Myanmar Junta:
With the junta on the back foot, the international community must increase pressure on the military regime to convince them that victory is impossible. Neighboring countries such as China, India, and Thailand should cease efforts to rehabilitate the junta. ASEAN member states opposed to the coup, particularly Indonesia, should go beyond quiet diplomacy and publicly engage with the National Unity Government and pro-democracy actors. The United States can contribute by imposing more vigorous economic sanctions and preventing the junta from attaining diplomatic recognition. Backdoor diplomacy should also be employed to convince China and regional actors that supporting the junta is not in their best interests. Political cooperation within the resistance coalition is crucial for stability in Myanmar’s future, and efforts must be made to address the demands and visions of ethnic minorities, youth, and civil society.
Conclusion:
Myanmar’s renewed civil war has reached a turning point with Operation 1027 and the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s strategic offensive. The junta’s vulnerabilities are exposed, and the resistance’s momentum is growing stronger. The international community must seize this opportunity to pressure the junta and support the pro-democracy movement. Myanmar’s future remains uncertain, but events are moving fast, and the resistance’s coordinated offensives indicate a real opportunity for change.
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