A look at the achievements and limitations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the need for continued global efforts
The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point in global efforts to combat climate change. While it was clear that the agreement alone could not solve the complex challenges of transitioning to a low-carbon future, it set in motion a series of actions and expectations that have yielded some positive results. As the world gathers for the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Dubai, it is crucial to assess the progress made since Paris and the challenges that lie ahead.
Renewable Energy Revolution
One of the most significant achievements since the Paris Agreement has been the rapid growth of renewable energy. The global installed solar capacity has increased from 230 gigawatts in 2015 to 1,050 gigawatts in 2021. This surge in renewable energy adoption has been driven by falling costs and improved policies. Carbon-pricing schemes have also expanded, with 23% of greenhouse gas emissions now covered and an average price of $32 per tonne. These developments have contributed to the International Energy Agency’s prediction that carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak in the coming years.
Net-Zero Goals and Global Momentum
Paris brought the concept of net-zero goals into the mainstream. In 2015, only one country had such a goal, but now 101 countries have committed to achieving net-zero emissions. The agreement’s emphasis on balancing carbon dioxide sources with sinks has set a new standard for climate action. The annual COP meetings provide a platform for countries to make side agreements and express their intentions, as seen in the recent commitment by the US and China to reduce methane emissions and triple renewable generating capacity by 2030.
Limitations and the Need for Private Sector Investment
While COP meetings have played a crucial role in setting expectations and creating a space for dialogue, they alone cannot solve the climate crisis. The private sector must play a significant role in driving the necessary investments in renewable energy. Bloomberg NEF estimates that investment levels need to double to achieve the proposed tripling in renewable capacity. To attract private funds, countries must redesign energy markets, streamline permit processes, improve grids, and phase out policies that favor fossil fuels.
The Urgency of Climate Action
Despite the progress made, the climate continues to worsen. The main driver of global warming is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which continues to rise as long as net emissions persist. Recent years have seen record-breaking temperatures, highlighting the urgency of the situation. To prevent further warming, unconventional approaches such as solar geoengineering, which involves reducing the amount of sunlight the planet absorbs, may need to be explored. However, such discussions require a separate forum outside the COP process.
Carbon Dioxide Removal and Ensuring Accountability
Mechanisms for removing carbon dioxide are within the scope of COP discussions. However, concerns arise when oil companies use carbon dioxide removal as a justification for maintaining high production levels. To address these concerns, countries must be explicit about their removal plans in their next round of “Nationally Determined Contributions.” Keeping targets for removals and emission reductions separate will ensure transparency and accountability.
Conclusion:
The Paris Agreement laid the foundation for global climate action and set new expectations for countries to address the climate crisis. While progress has been made in renewable energy adoption and the mainstreaming of net-zero goals, significant challenges remain. COP meetings alone cannot solve the climate crisis, and private sector investment and redesigning energy markets are crucial. The urgency of climate action is evident, and discussions on unconventional approaches like solar geoengineering must be held in separate forums. Additionally, explicit plans for carbon dioxide removal and accountability measures are necessary to ensure progress towards a stable climate. The COP process, when framed wisely and with appropriate rules, can help galvanize global progress.
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