China’s increasing contributions to scientific research are accompanied by a decline in international collaboration, posing challenges for global science.
In a groundbreaking development, China surpassed the United States in the Nature Index for contributions to natural-sciences research articles last year. This achievement marked a significant milestone for Chinese science and the Nature Index database. However, a closer look at the data reveals a concerning trend: while China’s research output is growing, its collaborations with scientists from other countries are declining. This decline, which has been ongoing for several years, was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The implications of this shift in global science collaboration are far-reaching and raise questions about the future of scientific research and innovation.
Minimal Collaboration: China’s Share/Count Ratio
When examining China’s Share/Count ratio in the Nature Index, which measures the percentage of authors from a specific location on each paper, it becomes evident that China’s research is increasingly conducted without international collaborators. In 2022, China’s Share/Count ratio stood at 82%, indicating a significant decrease in international collaboration. This ratio has been steadily rising since 2015 when it was 72%. In contrast, most other major science nations have seen a decline in their Share/Count ratios over the same period. For example, the United States’ ratio dropped from 75% to 70%, and Germany’s ratio decreased from 56% to 50%. Some scientific journals and fields show an even more pronounced decline in international collaboration, such as Analytical Chemistry, where China’s Share/Count ratio reached 96% in 2022.
Pandemic Hangover: Impact of COVID-19
While China’s decline in international collaboration predates the pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has undoubtedly played a role in exacerbating this trend. China implemented some of the strictest and longest-lasting travel restrictions globally, making it challenging for scientists to meet and collaborate with potential partners from other countries. Moreover, policy changes in China during the pandemic have made international collaboration less crucial for researchers’ career advancement. Institutions that previously required international collaborations for promotion dropped this requirement, reducing the motivation for researchers to seek international partnerships. The Chinese Scholarship Council, which funds many Chinese academics to visit foreign institutions as visiting scholars, also paused funding during the pandemic, further impacting the number of Chinese scholars engaging in international collaborations.
The Importance of Face-to-Face Collaboration
Although virtual collaboration tools gained popularity during the pandemic, face-to-face meetings remain crucial for initiating collaborations. Research shows that 90% of international collaborations begin with in-person interactions at conferences, research centers, or during visiting professorships. The disruption caused by the pandemic, including travel restrictions and limitations on in-person events, has hindered the formation of new collaborations. This impact is particularly evident in US-China collaborations, where a significant proportion of joint papers involve Chinese authors who either work at US institutions or have returned to China after studying in the United States. The lasting effects of the pandemic on scientific collaborations are expected to be significant.
Larger Trends: Rise of Domestic Science and Shifting Motivations
Beyond the pandemic, larger trends are shaping the decline in international collaboration, particularly in US-China partnerships. Despite the drop in US-China collaborations, there has been an overall increase in the total number of international collaborative papers published between 2018 and 2022. However, the number of papers with only China-based authors, often individuals educated solely in China with limited international experience, has seen a more substantial increase. China’s focus on domestic science and the quality of its domestic publications have made international collaborations less necessary in some fields. As China continues to make progress, the need for collaboration may diminish, as the country has enough options within its borders to find suitable partners. Additionally, Chinese academia’s evaluation and promotion systems, which often credit only the first author of a paper, may discourage researchers from collaborating internationally if they risk being listed in the middle of the author list.
A New Cold War: Political Tensions and Suspicion
Political tensions between China and many Western nations have contributed to the decline in international collaboration. Western governments have become increasingly suspicious of Chinese scientists, fearing technology theft and intellectual property infringements. Initiatives such as the US China Initiative, launched in 2018, led to fraud cases against researchers who failed to disclose ties to China on grant applications. Lengthy and complex visa processes have also deterred Chinese scientists from visiting Western countries, further hindering collaborations. The heightened suspicion and political climate resembling a new cold war have created a chilling effect on collaboration, with Chinese scientists uncertain about potential consequences and Western countries imposing stricter regulations.
Shifting Collaborative Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges
While collaboration with Western nations faces challenges, China is actively seeking collaborations with other countries, particularly those involved in its Belt and Road Initiative. These collaborations may result in research published in a broader range of journals, which might not be a concern for China if its goal is to expand its scientific influence globally. However, it is crucial not to extrapolate irreversible trends from the current data. Relations between China and the West may improve in the future, as evidenced by the discontinuation of the China Initiative and the renewal of the science and technology cooperation agreement between the United States and China. Chinese scientists remain eager to collaborate with international peers, as highlighted by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on international collaboration in a letter at a recent open innovation forum in China.
Conclusion:
China’s rise in scientific research output has been accompanied by a decline in international collaboration, presenting challenges for global science. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated this trend, with travel restrictions and policy changes reducing the motivation and opportunities for international collaborations. The shift towards domestic science and the increasing quality of China’s domestic publications suggest that international collaborations may become less necessary in certain fields. Political tensions and suspicion between China and Western nations have also contributed to the decline in collaboration. However, China’s active pursuit of collaborations with other countries offers opportunities for new partnerships and research avenues. The future of international scientific collaboration remains uncertain, but the importance of fostering global connections and knowledge exchange cannot be underestimated.
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