Coordinated offensive by ethnic militias in Myanmar inspires resistance forces and challenges the military regime’s control
In a major offensive against Myanmar’s military-run government, an alliance of three well-armed militias of ethnic minorities has launched a coordinated attack, leading to intense battles and significant losses for the military. This offensive, known as Operation 1027, has inspired resistance forces across the country to join the fight, raising hopes among opponents that this could be a turning point in the struggle to oust the military leaders who seized power from the democratically elected government three years ago. As the military faces unexpected losses and overstretched forces, the balance of power seems to be shifting, giving rise to a cautious optimism among its diverse opponents.
The Current Offensive and Its Impact
The offensive, launched on October 27 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army, has resulted in the loss of more than 180 military outposts and strongpoints, including major bases and economically important border crossings with China. While casualty figures are not available, the fighting has displaced nearly 335,000 civilians, adding to the already 2 million displaced nationwide. The military claims to be regrouping and vows to regain the initiative, but the resistance forces are determined to eliminate the military dictatorship.
China’s Role and Tacit Support
China’s apparent tacit support for the Three Brotherhood Alliance has complicated matters for the military regime. Beijing, growing increasingly irritated by the drug trade along its border and the proliferation of cyberscams originating from Myanmar, has repatriated thousands of Chinese nationals involved in such operations. This has given China little reason to exert pressure on the Brotherhood to cease fighting. The military, however, remains far superior in terms of size, training, and firepower, but its morale is sagging as more troops surrender and defect.
The Long Struggle and United Opposition
The struggle against the military regime began with the seizure of power on February 1, 2021, which led to widespread pro-democracy demonstrations and brutal crackdowns by the military. The violent tactics employed by the military gave rise to the formation of People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), armed resistance groups that support the National Unity Government. Operation 1027 brought together powerful armed ethnic groups, such as the MNDAA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army, along with other ethnic armed organizations. Despite their diverse backgrounds, these groups share a common goal of overthrowing or severely weakening the military regime.
The Battle for Territory and Shared Objectives
While the current offensive aims to change the political situation in Myanmar, it is also about seizing control of territory. The MNDAA, in particular, seeks to regain the Kokang area of Shan state, which it lost to the military over a decade ago. The various anti-military groups, however, are not fighting among themselves, as their shared objective is to dismantle the military regime. The military could potentially end the fighting by making considerable concessions, but its forces remain formidable, and the outcome of the ongoing battles is uncertain.
Conclusion:
The coordinated offensive by ethnic militias in Myanmar has dealt significant blows to the military regime, leading to a widespread loss of outposts and strongpoints. As the resistance forces gain ground and the military faces challenges on multiple fronts, the balance of power seems to be shifting. While the military remains larger and better equipped, its overstretched forces and sagging morale have given rise to a cautious optimism among its opponents. The current offensive may not be a definitive turning point, but it represents a significant escalation in the struggle to overthrow the military leaders who seized power. The fight for democracy and the end of military rule in Myanmar continues.
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